State At Risk As Rafael’s wind speeds had increased to 85 mph by 1 a.m. ET, and further intensification………

Where is Hurricane Rafael?

Tropical Storm Rafael was centered 65 miles east-northeast of Grand Cayman and about 230 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba at 1 a,m., the hurricane center said. With winds of 80 mph, the storm was moving at 13 mph.

Meteorologists say Rafael could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide along western Cuba, as well as hurricane force winds and intense rainfall. Parts of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands were expected to see between 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 10 inches.

Later on Wednesday, the storm will pass by the Florida Keys, bringing 1 to 3 inches of rain to the islands, according to the hurricane center, which added, “a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland.”

Rafael is the seventh Atlantic hurricane to form since Sept. 25, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. He said that breaks the mark of six hurricanes over that period set in 1870, according to historical records. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. An average year sees 14 storms.

How will Rafael impact Florida?

For the Florida Peninsula, Rafael will make its closest approach late Wednesday and Thursday, bringing increased chances of rain to the state as it lashes the Florida Keys with strong winds. Ryan Truchelut, a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network, said Rafael is forecast to remain well southwest of the Keys.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle islands on Wednesday, according to the hurricane center. A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwestern Florida’s mainland.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast U.S. during the middle to latter part of the week, the hurricane center said.

“The good news is that while Rafael may well enter the Gulf as a hurricane mid-week, there is very little chance of the storm reaching land as a hurricane,” Truchelut said.